The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has published a report finding that Russia used vessels from its “shadow fleet” as launch platforms for reconnaissance drones flown over European nuclear and military sites. According to the report, the maritime campaign ran for roughly 15 months, from August 2024 to February 2026, and touched 13 European countries. IISS documented at least 144 separate espionage incidents.
The drones appeared over some of NATO’s most sensitive locations. These reportedly included France’s Île Longue submarine base, which houses part of the French nuclear deterrent, RAF Lakenheath in the UK, and the Kleine Brogel and Volkel air bases in Belgium and the Netherlands, both linked to US nuclear weapons. In December 2025, French forces opened fire on drones spotted over Île Longue, one of the few incidents public at the time.
IISS analysts say the drones, reportedly including long-range types such as the Orlan-10, were launched from commercial tankers operating in international waters with their transponders switched off. By matching the timing and location of drone sightings to the tracked positions of shadow-fleet vessels, IISS linked specific ships to the campaign and named the sanctioned tanker Hav Dolphin as one platform. Western militaries reportedly intercepted none of the drones across the entire period. No European government has yet formally blamed Russia.
Source: IISS report, Axios, DefenseNews
So What
Using civilian tankers as mobile, deniable launch pads is clever tradecraft. It lets Russia probe NATO air defenses without an obvious military footprint. The most striking finding is not any single overflight. It is that Western forces reportedly failed to stop a single drone across 15 months, which likely shows Moscow exactly where the gaps are. The aim was possibly less about collecting imagery and more about mapping response times and normalizing airspace violations below the threshold that triggers a NATO reaction.
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