Information
In a recent statement, the Russian Defense Ministry announced a notable surge in military enlistments within the country, attributing the increase to a patriotic response following a tragic event in Moscow. Specifically, the ministry highlighted that over 100,000 individuals have joined the Armed Forces since the beginning of the year, with approximately 16,000 of these sign-ups occurring in the last ten days, many expressing their intent to participate in what Russia calls the “special military operation.” This spike in enlistment followed an attack on a Moscow concert hall in March, which left 144 people dead. The ministry conveyed through social media that the primary motivation for many new recruits is to seek revenge for the victims of the March 22, 2024, tragedy in the Moscow region, indirectly blaming Ukraine for the incident despite Ukraine’s strong denial and the attack being claimed by the so-called Islamic State.
The Russian narrative, however, faces contradictions and scepticism.
While Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, imply Ukrainian involvement, this stance is complicated by comments from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Moscow, who contradicts Putin’s claims regarding the assailants’ escape plans. Amidst these geopolitical tensions and accusations, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced plans to significantly expand the Russian military’s capabilities by forming fourteen new divisions by the end of 2024.
Source: AFP, Reuters, dpa, AP
Assessment
Regardless of how ridiculous Russia’s claims are relating to Ukrainian involvement in the attack, it is highly likely that their narrative is the most prominent in Russia. If Russia’s claims about this attack increasing recruitment are true, then they will likely use these recruits as part of a new offensive in the summer later this year. However, it is possible that this is all part of the wider Russian narrative aimed at convincing the West that this War is unwinnable and that supporting Ukraine is a waste of money.
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