Information
Belarus commenced military drills on Tuesday near the borders of Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland, as announced by the Belarusian Defense Ministry. These exercises, set to last three days in the Gomel and Grodno regions, aim to prepare officers and territorial defense troops on regional defense strategies and procedures to be followed in the event of martial law. Conducted under the supervision of the chief of missile troops and artillery of the Belarusian Armed Forces, the drills involve a command and staff exercise with the 336th reactive artillery brigade. This activity is part of Belarus’s efforts to enhance its combat readiness amidst deteriorating relations with Western nations, particularly following Belarus’s support for Russia’s military actions against Ukraine.
The military activities have sparked concern among Belarus’s neighbors, especially after Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko made provocative statements regarding potential military aggression against Poland and Lithuania. His remarks, which were shared on Telegram, discussed the Belarusian army’s preparedness to attack parts of these neighboring countries if necessary. This rhetoric, alongside the strategic importance of the Suwalki Corridor—situated between Poland and Lithuania and near Kaliningrad and Belarus—has heightened tensions in the region. Lithuania, along with other Baltic EU and NATO members, has protested against Lukashenko’s statements, underlining the growing unease with Belarus’s military posturing and its implications for regional security.
Source: AFP, Reuters
Assessment
Regardless of the growing tensions between Belarus and NATO, it is highly unlikely that there will be a direct military confrontation. This is due to the overall size of NATO compared to Belarus and that Russia, Belarus’s key strategic partner, is currently fully committed in the conflict in Ukraine. With mounting losses, Russia does not have nearly enough equipment to open another front against Ukraine, let alone NATO. Though it is possible that their expansion of military industry could get to the levels to support this, it appears unlikely.
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