U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks are taking place with Iran and none are scheduled, insisting the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating. Tehran contradicted him, saying the waterway remains shut to shipping. The claims came a day after a temporary ceasefire expired and a senior Iranian official said the country was shifting to a “fully offensive” military posture.
Preliminary data showed crossings through the strait still in single digits. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound, causing engine room damage and one crew casualty. Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the strait would stay shut until the U.S. lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, ends oil sanctions, releases frozen assets, and halts military operations.
A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day window for a broader deal on Iran’s nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. Oil rose again on fading peace hopes, with Brent settling just over $91 a barrel.
Source: Reuters, AFP, AP
So What
The June Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is no longer valid, and Washington has limited options left for negotiation. Trump’s assertion that the Strait of Hormuz is open contradicts shipping data and Iran’s own statements; it seems more like messaging than reality. Currently, Tehran has control over the situation: it can maintain the blockage of the strait, drive up oil prices during the U.S. election season, and obtain concessions that it couldn’t achieve through direct negotiations. Unless there are new military actions, it is highly likely that Iran will emerge from this conflict in a stronger position than it started, having transformed a defensive battle into a way to exert influence over global energy markets.
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