Information
Ukrainian forces have reportedly breached the Russian border in the Kursk region, according to Russian military bloggers. The alleged incursion follows a previous Russian claim that Ukrainian forces had been pushed out of the area. Pro-Kremlin sources, cited by Reuters, described how Ukrainian troops exploited rainy weather to fire missiles, breach minefields, and initiate a ground assault with armoured units. One prominent war blogger claimed that bridges were destroyed overnight before troops launched a morning offensive, resulting in intense combat near the border.
Despite multiple Russian bloggers confirming the reports, neither the Russian nor Ukrainian governments have issued official statements. The incident coincides with heightened tensions, as Russia’s military leadership had recently focused on establishing a buffer zone near Sumy to counter potential attacks. This renewed fighting also comes just before a planned three-day truce beginning May 8, declared by President Vladimir Putin in honour of the Soviet Union’s World War II victory, casting doubt on the potential for any de-escalation in the near future.
Source: RUMINT, Reuters, Deep State Map
So What
While highly likely embarrassing for Russia so close to May 8, this new offensive is unlikely to have any significant tactical or operational advantages. However, it is possible that Putin will order substantial forces to be redirected to counter this offensive, which would likely slow or stop offensives in other regions. Regardless, it is highly likely that the main strategic objective of this offensive is to discredit the Russian military.
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