Background
The Syrian civil war, which began nearly 14 years ago after the Assad government’s violent suppression of a popular uprising, has evolved into a prolonged and multifaceted conflict.
Russia and Iran have backed Assad’s regime, while Turkey has supported opposition groups and deployed forces in northwestern Syria.
The United States has focused on aiding Syrian Kurdish forces against the “Islamic State” in the east.
Since 2020, the war has largely stagnated, with sporadic clashes between rebels and Assad’s forces.
A 2020 truce brokered by Turkey and Russia halted the Syrian government’s offensive to retake the rebel-held Idlib region.
This new offensive, which began on Wednesday, 27 November, mainly involves the designated Islamist terror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army rebels.
From now on we will just refer to this group as “the rebels”
Friday 29 November
The rebels launched a major offensive against Bashar Assad’s forces in Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 255 fatalities, mostly combatants since the fighting began. The insurgents seized over 50 towns and villages before reaching Aleppo.
In response, the Syrian military pledged to counterattack, with significant reinforcements reportedly arriving in the area. However, these counterattacks never came, and government forces quickly withdrew from the region.
By 30 November, the Rebels were confirmed to have seized the city.
Tuesday 3 December
Following their capture of Aleppo, rebel forces advanced southward toward Hama, Syria’s fourth-largest city. The rebels seized the towns located just north of Hama, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
Thursday 5 December
The Rebels launched an offensive on Hama, leading to clashes with regime forces. The Syrian army announced its withdrawal from the city, citing the need to protect civilians and avoid dragging them into the conflict.
Friday 6 December
An uprising erupted in Syria’s southern Daraa province, a former opposition stronghold recaptured by Assad’s forces after years of conflict. Rebels quickly took control of several towns as regime loyalists fled or blended into the civilian population.
Simultaneously, the rebellion spread to neighbouring Suwayda province, where Druze communities dominate, with insurgents seizing Suwayda’s central prison and releasing prisoners.
Saturday 7 December
Rebel forces from Daraa province, supported by local fighters, launched an assault on Syria’s capital, Damascus, from the south.
At the same time, the HTS-led rebel army reached the northern suburbs of Homs, and other armed groups cut off the key Damascus-to-Homs highway.
Rebels, reportedly from the Western-backed Syrian Free Army, also captured the historic city of Palmyra in eastern Syria, which had previously been controlled by ISIS.
Sunday 8 December
Rebels confirmed the fall of both Damascus and Homs, declaring the “liberation of the city of Damascus” and the “fall of the tyrant Bashar al-Assad” from inside a state television studio.
In response to the situation, the Israeli government announced the deployment of troops to the buffer zone along its border with Syria after detecting the presence of armed personnel in the area. However, Israel stated that it was “not interfering with the internal events in Syria.”
As of moments ago, several news outlets have reported that Assad is in Moscow and has been given asylum by the Russian Government.
SO WHAT
This is the key question: what will happen next?
Though I always hope for peace, sadly, this seems unlikely despite all the statements from the Rebel group claiming they do not want conflict with anyone but Assad and his supporters. It seems likely that there will be some tribal infighting with groups vying for control of certain areas etc. For Syria, it is possible that it will turn into a two-state solution, with the West of the country controlled by Islamic tribes and, in the East, the Kurdish areas controlled by the SDF.
However, it is unlikely that the Kurds will be left to create their own state; this is due to the Turkish influence in the Rebel groups, who would be strongly opposed to a Kurdish state. This could also spell trouble for Hezbollah in Lebanon as Syria was their main supply route from Iran; with that cut off, they may struggle to get the weapons and supplies needed to fight Israel. While unlikely, this could lead to a similar movement in Lebanon looking to push out Iranian influence for good.
All in all, it is unlikely that the fall of the Syrian government will mean peace at last, it is more likely that smaller localised conflicts will break out. But, it is hopeful that sometime in the future peace could be restored to Syria, but this will take time and work.