Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

Students Topple Vucic at the Ballot Box

Serbia’s longtime leader Aleksandar Vucic has conceded defeat to the student-led Students’ List in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. The result ends more than a decade of rule by his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Vucic said projections gave the Students’ List 135 to 140 seats in the 250-seat parliament, with the SNS on around 105. Turnout was reportedly near 70%, the highest since 1992. Vucic blamed independent media and alleged interference by unnamed European countries and the “US deep state,” without giving evidence.

The movement grew out of nearly two years of protests after the 2024 Novi Sad train station canopy collapse, which killed 16 people and sparked anger over alleged corruption. Vucic stepped down as president last month to run for prime minister after calling snap elections. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the winners, as did Hungary’s Peter Magyar.
Source: AFP, AP, Reuters

So What
Moscow has now lost a second friendly European government in six months, after Orban fell in Hungary. That likely gives Brussels an opening, not a convert. The Students’ List is a broad anti-corruption coalition, not a pro-EU party, and Kosovo and Serbia’s reliance on Russian gas are still there. The first real test will likely be sanctions on Russia, which Vucic refused to join. The move from street protest to ballot box will possibly be copied elsewhere, and Albania’s student protests are already growing. Watch 27 December and Vucic’s next move. A defeated strongman who still has a loyal base could highly likely complicate the handover.

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