Information
Russian diplomats have made their first visit to Syria since the fall of former dictator Bashar Assad in December 2024. The delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Syria envoy Alexander Lavrentyev, is set to meet with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who heads the Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS) Islamist group. This visit underscores the strong strategic ties between Moscow and Damascus, with al-Sharaa emphasising the importance of Russian support in maintaining Syria’s military and infrastructure. Despite the change in leadership, Russia aims to retain its military presence, particularly its naval base in Tartous and air base in Hmeimim.
The visit comes amid ongoing geopolitical shifts, with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga urging Syria’s new rulers to expel Russian forces to enhance regional stability. Meanwhile, the EU has begun easing sanctions on Syria following visits by EU, German, and French delegations. Russia’s intervention in Syria since 2015 played a crucial role in supporting Assad’s regime during the civil war. Following Assad’s ouster, Russia relocated military assets from Syria to Libya, but it remains committed to maintaining its strategic foothold in the region. The chance of Russia abandoning their naval base in Syria by April on Polymarket has dropped from a weak of 80% in early December to 25% as of today.
Source: AFP, AP
So what
It seems unlikely that the new Syrian leadership will want to allow Russia to maintain these bases. Firstly, Russia was instrumental in the Assad regime’s campaign against them, but also due to the key backers of the new Syrian leadership, who are highly likely Turkey, did not want Russia to have control over these bases. Lastly, it is likely that the EU and US will privately encourage them not to allow Russia’s return, possibly hinging some aid or support on it as a condition. All of this is likely to limit Russia’s international security operations in Africa and disrupt their ghost fleets’ use of Syrian ports.
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