Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

Russia confirms Black Sea ceasefire

Information

Russia has confirmed its participation in a US-brokered agreement aimed at ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea. Additionally, Moscow and Washington have agreed to a temporary halt on strikes against Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities for 30 days, starting on March 18. However, Russia has made its commitment to the Black Sea navigation deal contingent on lifting sanctions imposed on its Agricultural Bank and other financial institutions, particularly regarding their reconnection to the SWIFT payment system.

The White House stated that both Russia and Ukraine have separately agreed to avoid military attacks on vessels and to prevent the use of commercial ships for military purposes. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov reiterated this commitment but cautioned that any movement of Russian warships beyond the eastern Black Sea would compel Ukraine to exercise its right to self-defense.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has urged the US to pressure Kyiv into restoring the Black Sea navigation agreement under terms more favorable to Moscow. Lavrov emphasized Russia’s readiness to revive the Black Sea Initiative but insisted that restrictions on its exports must be relaxed. He argued that even though Russian food and fertilizer exports are not directly sanctioned, logistical and financial barriers have hindered trade. Moscow believes that resolving these issues depends on Washington compelling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to comply with a new agreement.

Source: AFP, Reuters

So what

It seems likely that is just more delaying tactics and a hope that some sanctions on Russia could be lifted, though this is highly unlikely. Additionally, it is unlikely that Ukraine could place any level of trust in Russia’s commitment without clear security guarantees from a Western partner. This is due to Russia breaking the first agreement on numerous occasions.

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