Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

Rebel alliance announces unilateral ceasefire in DRC

Information

The alliance of rebel groups that captured Goma, a strategic city in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has declared a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons. This pause in fighting with the Congolese army, set to begin on Tuesday, comes after hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced and amid increasing calls for safe passage of aid. The United Nations’ Human Rights Council is also preparing to hold an emergency session on the situation in Goma, following a request from Kinshasa.

The rebel alliance, known as the Congo River Alliance, includes the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. While the M23 rebels have been gaining territory in other eastern parts of the country, they stated they have no intention of seizing Bukavu, the provincial capital of South Kivu. The UN reported that at least 900 people were killed in last week’s fighting in Goma, which was captured by the M23 rebels on January 27. The escalation has raised fears of a conflict similar to the one between 1996 and 2003 that resulted in millions of deaths. The DRC has requested an emergency session of the UN Human Rights Council to address the situation, scheduled for February 7 in Geneva.

Source: DW, BBC, France24

So what

While this development is positive in the short term, it is unlikely to be sustained. This situation appears to be a temporary pause, allowing for the distribution of aid and the evacuation of the wounded. Significant involvement from the United Nations is probably necessary to resolve this conflict, particularly if the aim is to remove the M23 group from Goma. Alternatively, UN forces may need to isolate Goma and apply political pressure on Rwanda to compel M23 to withdraw. Overall, it is improbable that this situation will be resolved in the short or medium term.

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