Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

Philippines’ Marcos warns China not to cross ‘red lines’

Information

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has expressed concerns about the escalating tensions with China in the South China Sea. He warned that if a Filipino citizen was killed by a willful act of China, it could be considered an act of war. The Philippines, along with China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, have overlapping claims in the South China Sea. The US, a treaty ally of the Philippines, has repeatedly stated its commitment to defend the Philippines in the disputed maritime region.

In response to the growing tensions, the US and China have agreed to resume military-to-military communications “in the coming months.” This decision was made during a meeting between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The meeting was significant as it was the first substantive in-person interaction between the two defense chiefs in 18 months.

The US and China have been making efforts to step up and keep communication lines open over the last several months, despite a rocky relationship in the last couple of years due to various issues including an alleged Chinese spy balloon, tensions over Taiwan and the Philippines, and China’s support for Russia in its war in Ukraine. The recent agreement to resume military communications and the establishment of a “crisis-communications working group” by the end of the year are seen as positive steps towards stabilizing relations between the two superpowers.

Source: Reuters, AFP

So what

This is a conflict area to keep a close eye on, while it is unlikely that it will turn into direct conflict, the Philippines and been growing more and more tired of Chinese aggression in the region. It does not appear likely that the Philippines will back down from their territorial claims against China, likely leading to continued clashes between the Chinese “coast guard” and the Philipino navy/fisherman.

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