Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pulled ahead in Israel’s election, but his coalition has reportedly lost its parliamentary majority. With nearly 86% of votes counted and record turnout, Israel’s three main broadcasters project 53 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc trails on 48. Neither bloc reaches the 61 seats needed to govern. Arab parties are projected to win 19 seats after unprecedented turnout, which could make them kingmakers between the two camps.
Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister while Israel’s president decides who gets the first shot at forming a government. Analysts say there are two main paths: a Netanyahu-led unity government, or another election. President Trump, who endorsed Netanyahu, said he did “very well.” In his post-election speech, Netanyahu called for a “strong right-wing national government” and said Israel had a historic opportunity to remove the Iranian threat. Eisenkot said Netanyahu now leads a transitional government that has lost public confidence.
Source: Reuters
So What
Netanyahu didn’t win this election so much as survive it. A deadlock still favors the incumbent. The opposition probably can’t govern without Arab party support, and right-wing figures like Bennett and Lieberman are unlikely to accept that. A Netanyahu-led unity government that pulls in Eisenkot or Bennett is the most likely outcome, possibly helped along by US pressure to sideline Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. A second election is also possible and could strengthen him further. The bigger risk is that a caretaker Netanyahu uses the Iran file to rally national unity, though any escalation would depend heavily on Washington.
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