Information
Lithuanian prosecutors have accused two Ukrainian nationals, one of whom is a minor, of carrying out an arson attack on an IKEA store in Vilnius last year on behalf of Russian military intelligence. The attack, which was planned over several months, involved an incendiary device with a time fuse. Authorities believe the suspects were following instructions from a terrorist network that communicated via social media and encrypted channels. Investigators suggest that both the suspects and their intermediaries may also be connected to criminal activities in Poland.
Officials claim that Russia orchestrated the attack through its military intelligence and security forces. Lithuania and Poland, both NATO and EU members, have been strong supporters of Ukraine and share a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave. The incident highlights growing concerns over potential Russian-backed operations in the region amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
Source: Reuters, AP, AFP
So what
The use of terror groups and criminal elements by state-based actors is not new, but there has likely been an increase in kinetic attacks carried out by these groups. Several factors contribute to their effectiveness as agents for such operations: their willingness, access, and disposability. It is often easier for an operative in a hostile state to hire a criminal in the target country to conduct low-level operations, like arson. This approach is generally safer (operationally) and probably cheaper than sending an agent from its own country. Unfortunately, this trend is likely to continue and will be very difficult to stop. One potential solution might be to impose harsher penalties on criminals who act on behalf of a foreign state, which could deter such actions in the future.
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