Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

Far-Right Surge in French Elections Sparks Political Realignment and Protests

Information
The National Rally (RN) party and its allies secured 33% of the vote in the first round of French parliamentary elections, as reported by the Interior Ministry. This outcome aligns with pre-election surveys and exit poll results. The leftist New Popular Front bloc followed with 28%, while the centrist Ensemble bloc, led by President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, gained 20%. Protests erupted in Paris and other cities in response to RN’s success, reflecting fears of a rightward shift in France. Macron has called for a “broad democratic and republican alliance” to prevent RN from achieving an absolute majority in the second round.

Despite the first-round win, uncertainty looms over RN’s ability to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly in the runoff elections. The second round will involve runoff votes between two or three candidates in constituencies without an outright winner. Both the New Popular Front and Macron’s centrist alliance have pledged to withdraw candidates to improve chances against RN, except in cases where the leading candidate is from the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. Meanwhile, European far-right leaders have celebrated RN’s victory, with figures like Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Spain’s Santiago Abascal expressing support and optimism for a broader far-right resurgence across Europe.
Source: AFP, Reuters

So what
While the election is not over, and it is possible that the centrist and left-leaning parties could work together to block out the right, it is clear that there is significant support for the right in France. This rise in popularity follows similar trends across Europe that have seen right-leaning groups gain a boost in popularity. Additionally, while the right-leaning parties hold the highest percentage, they do not hold a majority, meaning that if they want to control the government, they will need support from other parties. This situation will likely cause them to tone down their more extreme ideas.

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