Information
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded his sixth visit to the region with a stop in Tel Aviv, where he is set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Blinken’s visit comes amid heightened tensions following Israel’s offensive in the Gaza Strip. He is expected to urge Israel to reconsider its planned ground assault in Rafah and propose alternative solutions. Concurrently, Israel announced the seizure of 800 hectares (1,977 acres) of land in the occupied West Bank, which activists condemned as the largest such seizure in decades.
During earlier discussions with Arab leaders, Blinken addressed efforts for a cease-fire and the reconstruction of Gaza post-conflict. The United Nations Security Council is slated to vote on a US-sponsored resolution calling for an immediate and sustained cease-fire in Gaza, aimed at protecting civilians, facilitating humanitarian aid delivery, and easing humanitarian suffering. Blinken, speaking from Saudi Arabia, emphasized that the resolution is tied to the release of hostages and called for international support. While China expressed willingness to back meaningful action by the Security Council, Russia criticized the draft text for not explicitly demanding a cease-fire. To pass, the resolution requires at least nine affirmative votes and no veto from any of the five permanent Security Council members.
Source: AFP, AP
Assessment
It appears unlikely that Israel will back down from the planned assault on Rafah despite objections from the international community. While it is likely that without this final assault, Hamas will still maintain the ability to operate, this last objective will be slow and possibly costly both in civilian and IDF casualties. One possibility would be for the IDF to set up controlled IDP camps in already cleared areas of Gaza and allow civilians to move through to these areas after being searched. While extremely challenging, this would reduce civilian casualties and allow the IDF to assault more aggressively.
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