President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a deal to end the US-Iran war is “largely negotiated” and could be signed as soon as this weekend in Europe, with Vice President JD Vance expected to attend the signing. Trump told reporters at the White House that “The strait will officially open as soon as we sign,” referring to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has all but closed to commercial shipping since the three-month-old conflict began.
Despite the optimistic signals, Iran said it had not made a final decision on a pact. Tensions around the strait remained high on Friday, with US forces shooting down two Iranian one-way attack drones after Tehran attempted to strike commercial vessels transiting the waterway. Iran’s military also stopped a tanker from transiting the strait, with state media reporting explosions early Friday morning.
The conflict has killed thousands and sent global energy prices sharply higher. Any deal, Trump has said, must include guarantees that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon.
Source: Reuters, CNBC, Al Jazeera
So What
A deal is possible, but it is unlikely to be the deal Trump originally sought. Tehran’s refusal to confirm a pact, combined with ongoing drone attacks and tanker interdictions on the same day Trump declared the war “settled,” suggests Iran is still negotiating from a position of leverage, not capitulation. The most likely read: Iran accepts a face-saving arrangement that preserves some form of its nuclear program, which Trump will frame as a win regardless of the specifics.
The domestic dimension matters here. If the deal falls short of Trump’s stated red lines on nuclear weapons, political opponents will have ammunition heading into the midterms. A weak deal is arguably worse than no deal: it hands critics a concrete target. Even with a signed agreement, both sides have shown a willingness to continue trading blows. Iran’s calculus may favor ongoing low-level pressure as leverage in implementation talks.
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