Only 11% of Europeans now consider the United States to be an ally, according to a new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) released this week. That is a historic low. Just six months ago the figure stood at 16%. At the time of Donald Trump’s November 2024 election win, it was 22%. The poll covered adults across 15 European countries in May 2026 and was timed ahead of upcoming G7 and NATO summits.
A majority of respondents do not believe the US would come to Europe’s defense if the continent were attacked. Most Europeans in every country surveyed, except Bulgaria, expect the relationship to improve once Trump leaves office. The poll also found that 47% of respondents back collective EU borrowing to fund defense, Europeans are 4% more likely than last year to support higher defense spending, and there is broad support for reducing reliance on US military hardware in favor of European alternatives.
Source: Reuters, ECFR
So What
The 11% figure is alarming but not surprising. Trump’s second term significantly damaged transatlantic trust due to threats against Greenland, tariff escalations, reduced support for Ukraine, and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany. This decline is largely a consequence of Trump’s presidency, rather than a shift in European attitudes, as many Europeans expect relations to improve after Trump.
A more notable development is the growing willingness among Europeans to accept the costs of rearmament. This shift could signal a strategic change, as debates over NATO burden-sharing had previously stalled due to voter resistance to increased defense budgets. A more self-reliant Europe may emerge from this period, but it remains uncertain if governments can turn this public support into actual military capability.
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