Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

Why Russia hesitates to help Iran in conflict with Israel

Information

Since Israel began attacking Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Russian President Vladimir Putin has actively engaged with global leaders, voicing strong opposition to Israel’s actions. He condemned the strikes as violations of international law and expressed solidarity with Iran, reinforcing Moscow’s longstanding strategic partnership with Tehran. Despite the growing alliance, strengthened by shared opposition to Western sanctions and Iran’s recent entry into BRICS, Russia is unlikely to offer military support. While its Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty reflects deepening ties, it notably avoids any mutual defence commitments, indicating that Russia seeks to avoid further military entanglement in the Middle East.

Instead, Moscow appears more interested in positioning itself as a mediator. Analysts suggest Putin may be using this role to maintain influence and potentially broker negotiations between Iran and its adversaries, including through indirect diplomacy with the U.S. This strategy also serves Russia’s interests in Ukraine; with Western attention diverted by Middle East tensions, the Kremlin recently launched a major strike on Kyiv, possibly exploiting the distraction. Experts argue that such regional chaos could benefit Russia’s geopolitical aims, giving Putin more room to manoeuvre while weakening Western focus on the war in Ukraine.

Source: DW

So What

It appears likely that Russia does not have enough capability to support Iran even if it is willing to. Though, as this article highlights, it is beneficial for Russia to divert attention away from its war in Ukraine, there are likely some major medium to long-term issues that will fall out of this conflict. Namely the loss of manufacturing for drones and other military equipment that was being supplied to Russia.

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