Information
The British Defence Ministry’s daily intelligence briefing highlighted a significant presence of approximately 1,000 fighters associated with the Russian private military force, the Wagner Group, who have chosen to stay in Belarus. Their primary role appears to be centered around the training of local soldiers and security forces. This development follows the arrival of a substantial contingent of around 8,000 Wagner mercenaries in Belarus in June 2023. This influx occurred after the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, faced a setback in his attempted uprising against the Russian military. According to the intelligence briefing, there seems to be a level of assurance that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is not likely to deploy the Wagner mercenaries beyond their current assigned responsibilities. The report suggests that their primary function involves providing training to the Ministry of Interior troops. However, it emphasizes that their direct involvement in maintaining domestic or border security within Belarus is deemed highly improbable.
Source: UKDI
Assessment
It is possible that Lukashenko has found a core group of trainers that can provide the Belarussian military with essential training as tensions rise in the region. This deal may have been seen as a win-win for Russia, Belarus and the soldiers themselves, with each getting something out of the deal. We agree that it appears highly unlikely that these Wagner soldiers would be used to conduct a direct attack on Ukraine; however, it is possible that in addition to their current training role, they could be used to conduct grey zone-type operations along the border region in an attempt to draw the attention of Ukrainian intelligence.
Like, share, and subscribe!