Information
A fragile ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia has largely held following a week of deadly border clashes that left at least 38 dead and displaced nearly 300,000 people. The agreement, reached in Malaysia, came under immediate strain when Thailand accused Cambodia of renewed attacks, which Cambodia denied. The truce, effective from midnight Monday, was driven in part by economic pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned both countries that continued hostilities could jeopardise upcoming trade agreements. Trump’s administration is set to impose steep 36% tariffs on goods from both nations, and the threat of economic fallout pushed leaders toward halting the violence, despite lingering tensions on the ground.
Although sporadic skirmishes were reported, military leaders from both sides met to reaffirm the ceasefire and prevent further escalation. Thai and Cambodian officials emphasised coordination and restraint, while displaced civilians began cautiously returning to areas near the contested border. However, many remain in refugee shelters, hesitant to return until full safety is assured. Analysts caution that the truce is tenuous, with unresolved territorial disputes and economic pressures complicating the peace process. Experts argue that without a proper border survey and diplomatic resolution, the situation remains volatile and at risk of reigniting.
Source: BBC, Al Jazeera
So What
Both countries likely want the ceasefire to remain in place, and the reported skirmishes may stem from operational and tactical miscommunication or disagreements. Nevertheless, at a strategic level, it appears highly probable that the ceasefire will hold, potentially leading to a lasting peace. However, even if peace is achieved, it is expected that Cambodia will seek to enhance its military capabilities, as this brief conflict has revealed significant deficiencies. This may result in Cambodia moving closer to China politically, exchanging its influence for weapons and training.
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