Information
The deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland would have been a straightforward agreement, where one country allows access to a seaport to a landlocked neighbor in exchange for a political prize. However, since Somaliland is not a recognized independent state, the political prize was Ethiopia taking steps towards acknowledging Somaliland as a sovereign state, which has led to serious repercussions. The Somali government has recalled its ambassador to Addis Ababa, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has signed a law nullifying the agreement, claiming it protects Somalia’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity as per international law. This would make any future steps by Ethiopia and Somaliland illegal from a Somali perspective. Ethiopia and Somaliland reached an agreement on New Year’s Day over the use of the commercial port of Berbera, which DP World has expanded. Ethiopia plans to use the port for international trade and lease land from Somaliland to build a naval base. In exchange, Somaliland will receive shares in Ethiopian Airlines. Any diplomatic recognition of Somaliland’s cause would weaken the central government in Mogadishu.
Source: BBC, Al jazeera, Reuters DW
Assessment
This agreement has sparked controversy, with several Western countries opposing it. However, it is known that Ethiopia has been seeking long-term access to a Red Sea port and has been investing in this port since 2019. After failing to reach an agreement with Djibouti in late 2023, Ethiopia has turned to other options. Unfortunately, Eritrea and Somalia have already denied Ethiopia access to their ports, making this agreement with Somaliland more significant. It appears that Ethiopia has made a decision and will likely proceed with the deal unless significant pressure is applied. It is also possible that Ethiopia has provided security assurances to Somaliland as part of the agreement, which could further increase tension. While there are currently no signs that it will lead to military conflict, Ethiopia is already in disagreement with Sudan and Egypt, and this deal will only further alienate them in the region.
Ethiopia’s agreement with breakaway region Somaliland, seeking port access in exchange for potential sovereignty recognition, could cause upheaval in the Horn of Africa.
Like, share, and subscribe!