Information
Iranian security forces used tear gas on Tuesday to disperse protesters gathered at the Tehran Grand Bazaar, according to witnesses and human rights organizations. Demonstrators had reportedly staged a sit-in and chanted slogans opposing clerical rule. Verified social media footage showed protesters shouting phrases such as “Pahlavi will return” and “Seyyed Ali will be overthrown,” referencing the former monarchy and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Additional videos shared by Iran Human Rights and HRANA captured crowds chanting “freedom” before security forces fired tear gas, forcing people to flee.
The protests were sparked by rising living costs and have been accompanied by violence across the country. Iranian state media, citing official figures, report at least 12 deaths linked to the unrest. However, foreign-based Iranian activist groups claim the toll is significantly higher, alleging at least 27 protesters have been killed and more than 1,000 detained. These figures could not be independently verified.
Source: AFP, AP
So What
While the protests are notable and reflect deep public frustration, they currently appear unlikely to result in the overthrow of the regime. It is more probable that security forces, including the police and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), will employ substantial force to suppress the unrest. There remains a possibility of an external political response, particularly from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has previously threatened intervention, though such action is uncertain. Overall, the situation remains complex, fluid, and subject to rapid change.
Follow us to join the intelligence community!