Information
A fire broke out at the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region after drone debris fell onto the facility, but it was quickly extinguished, according to local emergency services. The Russian Defence Ministry reported that nine Ukrainian drones were shot down in the area overnight, while Ukraine confirmed its drone units had targeted the refinery, though it did not provide specific details. The Afipsky refinery, alongside the Krasnodar facility, processed 7.2 million metric tons of crude in 2024, but the extent of damage from the latest incident remains unclear.
Industry sources suggest the attack may lead to reduced crude usage at the Afipsky refinery, potentially increasing Russian crude exports in August. Ukraine has consistently targeted Russian oil infrastructure with drone strikes, affecting supply chains and refinery operations. Following recent attacks, Russia plans to boost exports from its western ports to around two million barrels per day, 200,000 more than previously estimated, as damaged refineries reduce domestic processing. Notably, Rosneft-operated Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries halted several crude distillation units after strikes on August 2, with repairs expected to take about a month.
Source: Reuters
So What
Regardless of Trump’s statements and the West’s support for Ukraine, strikes like these are likely Ukraine’s best chance at bringing Russia to the negotiating table. Damaging Russian oil facilities, such as refineries, distribution points, or pipelines, directly impacts the revenue Russia can generate, which in turn affects its military spending. If Trump decides to support through sanctions, then that is great news that will likely have a significant effect, but regardless, Ukraine should keep doing what they are doing.
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