Information
Myanmar has faced ongoing turmoil since the military coup led by General Min Aung Hlaing on February 1, 2021. The coup triggered armed conflicts involving the civilian-led National Unity Government, people’s defense forces, and ethnic armed groups. Despite the junta extending the state of emergency by six months on the coup’s third anniversary, they still struggle to control the country.
The aftermath includes over 4,400 deaths, 25,000 arrests, and a deteriorating economy, which is now 10% lower than in 2019, according to the World Bank. While urban areas may seem relatively normal, the countryside faces instability, inadequate electricity, and reduced agricultural production, causing many businesses to cease operations. The UN reports over two million displaced people since the coup.
Diplomatic efforts, particularly by ASEAN, have been ineffective, with the junta showing no inclination for a political solution. The military’s use of air strikes and scorched-earth tactics has intensified the conflict. However, Myanmar’s opposition forces, through “Operation 1027,” have made gains, capturing territory in Shan state and challenging the junta’s hold on power. Analysts believe this offensive poses a significant threat to the military’s control, as they lack the resources for major counter-offensives. China has become involved due to potential trade disruptions and an influx of refugees along the Myanmar-China border.
Source: DW, AP News, Euro News
Assessment
While significantly underreported, this is an important conflict in Southeast Asia. China supports the ruling junta, likely due to the oil pipelines that run through the country and other illicit businesses that Chinese nationals base out of Myanmar. Currently, there is limited international support for the rebel groups fighting against the Junta; however, it is possible this will grow as countries continue to try to counter Chinese interests in the region.
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