We have received numerous questions around the possibility of WW3, so we decided to do something different today.
Intelligence requirement: “What is the likelihood of large-scale conflict breaking out in Europe or the Middle East?”
Our current assessment is that the likelihood of a large-scale conflict in Europe or the Middle East is very low (less than a 20% chance).
Firstly, in the Middle East, the recent conflict between Israel and Iran has severely weakened the Iranian military; they currently lack both offensive and defensive weapon systems and have exhausted their ammunition stocks. Therefore, the chance of a renewed large-scale conflict is very slim, as it would likely cause further destruction to the Iranian military and might even result in the current regime losing control of the country.
In Europe, although the risk of large-scale conflict is greater than in the Middle East, the security provided by the NATO alliance remains an effective deterrent against any aggression (Article 5 states that an attack on one member is an attack on all). Because of this, it is highly unlikely that Russia would try to directly attack any member state, as doing so would almost certainly lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia—a conflict that Russia is unlikely to survive. Russia is currently three years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a conflict it had hoped to end within weeks or months. Although it is gradually making advances in Ukraine, they come at significant personal and equipment costs. These losses, Russia’s ongoing focus on Ukraine, and NATO’s increased expenditure make it highly unlikely that Russia will attempt to attack any NATO country in the short to medium term (within the next six to twelve months).
That is our two cents, but what do you think? Will the current conflicts continue to simmer away, or are we looking down the barrel of WW3?
#HM #HMIntelligence #WW3 #Conflict #Intelligence