The first Russian diesel cargo sent under the new Trump-Putin deal is reportedly on its way to New York, according to ship-tracking data. The Malta-flagged tanker Agioi Fanendes loaded 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulphur diesel at Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk on October 22. It is due to arrive on November 7. The buyer and seller have not been identified.
This would be the first US import of Russian oil products since the 2022 ban. Trump announced the deal on October 9 as a way to bring down diesel prices before the November 3 midterms. Russia has promised 300,000 tons now, 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons after that. Washington has also waived parts of a new sanctions law against Russia. The Kremlin confirmed the first tanker has sailed but did not say where it is going.
Diesel is still near record highs. The national average is around $6.28 a gallon, not far off the $6.52 record set in September. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy called the deal a weak decision by strong partners.
Source: Reuters, AP, AAA
So What
On current prices, the deal has done very little for American drivers so far. The flows are too small and the Iran war keeps pushing prices up. One clear winner is Moscow, which gets new revenue for its war in Ukraine and a crack in the sanctions regime. There is also a bigger problem. No one has said how “Russian origin” will be checked, and refined fuel is very hard to trace. Some analysts warn that Iranian product could be blended into Russian cargoes. That is unconfirmed. But if it’s true, Washington could end up indirectly funding an adversary it is currently at war with.
Follow us to join the intelligence community!