Information
Ukraine’s security chief Rustem Umerov said Kyiv and Washington have reached broad alignment on the main terms of a proposed peace deal to end Russia’s full-scale invasion. He noted that negotiators achieved a “common understanding” during talks in Geneva and that Ukraine now looks to European partners to support the next steps. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to travel to the United States this week to address remaining “sensitive” issues with American officials.
Zelenskyy, speaking after meetings with allies in Geneva, expressed cautious optimism that the steps required to end the war are becoming achievable. Russia, which had initially endorsed the original “Trump plan” as a preferred basis for a settlement, has since warned against modifying the proposal to accommodate Ukraine’s security and territorial concerns.
Source: AFP, Reuters
So What
While this progress between Kyiv and Washington represents a constructive step, a comprehensive peace agreement remains distant due to several unresolved structural challenges. Foremost among these is the issue of security guarantees: both Ukraine and Russia lack trust in one another, and neither is likely to accept a third-party guarantor with sufficient authority and neutrality to enforce the terms of any deal. This enforcement dilemma remains a central barrier to translating diplomatic alignment into a durable settlement.
Additionally, it is doubtful that Moscow will agree to the meaningful revisions Ukraine seeks. Russia’s recent posture suggests it may be leveraging the negotiation process to mitigate U.S. sanctions pressure while continuing to pursue tactical advantages on the battlefield. Until Russia demonstrates a willingness to accept substantive changes, or is sufficiently pressured to do so, the likelihood of a genuinely enforceable and mutually acceptable agreement remains low.
Follow us to join the intelligence community!
#HMIntelligence #HM #Ukraine #Russia #Conflict