Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

NATO Hits 2% Defence Goal, but Few Reach 3.5% Benchmark

Information

A new NATO report reveals that for the first time, all member states are expected to reach the alliance’s long-standing defence spending target of 2% of GDP in 2024, a goal initially agreed upon at the 2014 Wales summit. This marks a significant shift, as just last year more than ten of NATO’s 32 members still fell short of the requirement. Countries that had historically lagged behind, such as Spain, Italy, and Belgium, have now boosted their defence budgets, spurred largely by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and mounting pressure from the United States for European allies to take on a greater share of defence responsibilities.

Despite this progress, only three NATO members, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, have met the newly established 3.5% GDP benchmark set in The Hague earlier this year, with Poland leading at 4.48%. The United States, though still the largest contributor overall, is expected to spend 3.22%, falling short of the new threshold. Germany has yet to release precise figures but has indicated it will reach the target once its budget is approved. At the inauguration of a Rheinmetall ammunition plant in Germany, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised the rise in spending but stressed that financial commitments must translate into real military readiness and deterrence capabilities, emphasising that security depends not just on investment but on effective defence capacity.

Source: Reuters, AP

So What

Sustained pressure from U.S. President Trump was likely the key catalyst behind NATO members collectively reaching the 2% defence spending goal, marking a significant step forward for European security. This is despite them claiming that it is due to the increased threat from Russia. However, despite this progress, more investment will likely be required to sustain support for Ukraine and to rebuild critical stockpiles of ammunition and equipment needed for credible long-term deterrence.

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