Information
Russia and Belarus will conduct joint military drills in Belarus from September 12–16, aimed at testing their military capabilities and ensuring readiness against potential aggression, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry. Major General Valery Revenko emphasised the defensive nature of the exercises, while President Alexander Lukashenko dismissed fears from Baltic nations and Poland that the drills might be a cover for an attack as “complete nonsense.” Nonetheless, Lukashenko confirmed that the drills were moved away from Belarus’ western borders with EU countries in response to these concerns.
The announcement comes amid heightened tensions in the region, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warning earlier this year that Russia might be planning something in Belarus under the guise of routine exercises, though he offered no evidence. Relations between Belarus, Russia’s staunchest ally, and neighbouring Western countries, as well as Ukraine, have significantly deteriorated since Moscow used Belarusian territory to help launch its invasion of Kyiv in February 2022.
Source: AP, Reuters
So What
While there is always a possibility that Russia could use this to open a new front against Ukraine, this seems unlikely at this stage due to the significant resources that would be taken away from their fronts in Eastern Ukraine. However, since Ukraine cannot rule it out, it is likely to pull Ukrainian resources away from their defence, possibly leading to an increase in Russian gains. Outside of this, observation of these drills will provide valuable intelligence on the current state of Russia’s wider military readiness.
Follow us to join the intelligence community!