Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

The ceasefire is back on despite earlier breaches

Information

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran would adhere to the ceasefire agreement as long as Israel does not violate it. He affirmed Tehran’s willingness to engage in dialogue and protect its national interests diplomatically. His remarks, shared by state media, reflect a desire to avoid escalation while maintaining a firm stance. During a phone call with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad, Pezeshkian also expressed regret over a retaliatory strike that mistakenly hit a military base in Qatar, surprising Qatari officials who emphasized their traditionally good relations with Iran.

Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain high, with conflicting claims of violations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office reported that Iran launched three missiles after the ceasefire began, prompting Israel to strike an Iranian radar installation. However, Israel ultimately held back from further attacks following a conversation between Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump later expressed confidence in the ceasefire’s stability but also accused both Iran and Israel of violating the agreement in a social media post, raising doubts about the truce’s long-term durability.

Source: AFP, AP, Reuters

So What

It is possible that the earlier breaches, likely instigated by Iran, may have stemmed from miscommunication or disagreements within the Iranian regime. This situation may have arisen due to the rushed announcement, particularly by Trump, suggesting it might not have been officially communicated to the troops. However, the ceasefire remains very fragile and could easily be disrupted by Iranian proxies in Gaza, Yemen, or Lebanon. While this step is extremely positive, we are only one mistake away from jeopardizing the entire situation.

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