Huginn and Muninn Intelligence

What you need to know about the US strikes on Iran

Information

The United States carried out a major military strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, deploying B-2 stealth bombers to drop 16 GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs, 14 on the Fordow facility and two on Natanz, while submarines fired 30 Tomahawk missiles at targets in Natanz and Isfahan. These precision strikes reportedly inflicted heavy damage, especially on the deeply buried Fordow site. President Donald Trump declared that the targeted facilities were “completely and fully obliterated,” although this has not been independently verified. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization acknowledged the attacks but insisted that its nuclear program remains intact and will continue.

The strikes followed escalating tensions and open conflict between Israel and Iran that began on June 13, with Israel initiating attacks on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Iran retaliated by launching multiple missile waves against Israel after the US strikes. Despite the severity of the attacks, both Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported no immediate radioactive leakage. Global reactions have been mixed, with some nations condemning the use of force and urging a return to diplomatic negotiations to prevent further escalation.

Source: AP, dpa, Reuters

So What

While this is clearly a significant escalation in the conflict, it could be a limited escalation depending on Iran’s response. If Iran conducts similar responses against the US in the past, such as firing a missile near a US military base and not killing any US troops, then it is likely the US will not conduct any more strikes. However, if Iran does attack US troops in the region, with significant casualties, then it is likely that the US will conduct further strikes on Iran. In summary, the ball is now in Iran’s court on how it wants to respond to this attack; this will likely determine what happens next.

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