Information
With major wars being waged on multiple continents, the world is facing “what is likely to be a more dangerous decade,” a British military think-tank said on Tuesday. “The current military-security situation heralds what is likely to be a more dangerous decade, characterised by the brazen application by some of the military power to pursue claims,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its annual Military Balance report. The report cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Israel’s war against Hamas militants in Gaza and Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. But it also pointed to rising tensions in the Arctic, North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and the rise of military juntas in the Sahel region of Africa as contributing to a “deteriorating security environment.”
Global military spending rose by 9% to $2.2tn in 2022 due to the current period of insecurity. The US and Europe invested in missile and ammunition production after years of underinvestment. NATO defence funding received renewed attention, and Iran’s influence in conflict zones has increased. China has demonstrated increased power-projection capacity. These challenges need to be addressed while Western defence spending is increasing.
Source: IISS, AFP, AP
Assessment
This report is formalising what everyone is thinking; tensions are heating up, and all sides are ramping up military production. While it is likely that a world war can be averted through diplomacy, ageing dictators such as Putin and Xi, who are looking to cement their place in history, pose a risk. It is likely that a significant military build-up in Europe and clear support for Ukraine can avert further military action in Europe and Asia. History has shown that strength is the most effective way of avoiding conflict instead of appeasement, which has historically only led to further conflict.
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